Notes on AZ family chronic costs vs. income

Direct chronic disease medical costs, not including indirect economic (productivity/absenteeism/presenteeism) costs, of the major chronic diseases itemized by Milken Institute, including heart-disease/hypertension/high-cholesterol, back/musculoskeletal issues, cancer & many other chronic conditions—but not including mental illness costs.

“Obesity [from inactivity & unhealthy nutrition] is by far the greatest risk factor contributing to the burden of chronic diseases…[&] accounted for 47.1% of the total cost [health care + economic] of chronic diseases.” (Milken, 2018; based on 2016 data: 2021+ est. >50%; also, disease-by-disease estimates by Milken & HFUS based on Milken, Mensah & other data imply that 45-55% of key chronic diseases are now caused by inactivity & unhealthy nutrition—often leading to metabolic syndrome & presenting first as child obesity).

The Good News: realistic potential to reduce direct/medical chronic healthcare costs in Arizona by $5B+/20% over time from school-based strategies—beginning immediately, with students & their parents, also leading to high post-K-12 near-term impact on young adults + significant impact later—in middle-age…from postponing on-set & reducing severity of chronic disease (see other web pages slides).

AZ, 2016: $23.4B in direct medical costs, $3,341/person: 2019: population 7.3M; 2.6M households = 2.8 people/HH; per capita income $30,694; median household income $58,945; per Census.gov   Also see Peterson-Kaiser Family Foundation analysis: average middle-income families in USA spend 15-24% of household income on heath: Household Health Spending Calculator, Health System Tracker (KFF, 2017).

Reference: Waters & Graf, 2018 (Milken Institute): The Costs of Chronic Disease in the U.S. (includes state data) and America’s Obesity Crisis: The Health and Economic Costs of Excess Weight: “Obesity increases insulin resistance, blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, and triglycerides. Further, obesity lowers HDL cholesterol and places the body in a pro-inflammatory state. Extreme fat retention in the body is detrimental because fat cells networked together act as an endocrine organ.” AZ population & household size & income data: census.gov

Health care costs of 11% of AZ per capita income & 16% of household income are calculated based on total chronic medical costs divided by #Arizonans & Arizona households, respectively. Per Kaiser Family Foundation data, the true total costs are not clear to employers & families [or political leaders], since health costs are paid for from a combination of: federal taxes, premiums & debt; employer premiums/self-insurance; and employees & individuals (premiums, co-pays, out-of-pocket—including foregone salary in employer premiums to keep employee health insurance premiums affordable)—see other slides.

Notes@07/29/2023   (See latest notes in most recent HFUS slides.)